Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.364760 0.420957 0.481946 0.552926 0.633133 0.720819 0.823802
2025-06-22 0.269143 0.339250 0.421326 0.524044 0.648652 0.794385 0.977156
2025-06-29 0.206054 0.282508 0.378648 0.507366 0.673980 0.881029 1.156274
2025-07-06 0.157745 0.235067 0.339370 0.488426 0.693659 0.963641 1.342447
2025-07-13 0.129971 0.209693 0.324598 0.499079 0.753319 1.105456 1.623968
2025-07-20 0.104199 0.182110 0.302071 0.495429 0.793085 1.226212 1.893834
2025-07-27 0.086420 0.163177 0.289077 0.503772 0.851643 1.381390 2.232735
2025-08-03 0.072426 0.147503 0.278433 0.514074 0.914823 1.551599 2.615277
2025-08-10 0.056558 0.124817 0.251773 0.493407 0.925248 1.641650 2.885724
2025-08-17 0.043212 0.103558 0.223381 0.464590 0.917371 1.700901 3.113832
2025-08-24 0.034751 0.090058 0.206832 0.454448 0.940659 1.814896 3.445802
2025-08-31 0.028046 0.078568 0.191891 0.444663 0.962973 1.929591 3.791656
2025-09-07 0.024105 0.072774 0.188406 0.458890 1.036323 2.150076 4.359552
2025-09-14 0.018719 0.061613 0.170444 0.439054 1.038867 2.239691 4.700027
2025-09-21 0.014940 0.053497 0.157709 0.428390 1.058957 2.365958 5.125023
2025-09-28 0.011806 0.046085 0.144863 0.414869 1.070762 2.477364 5.534356
2025-10-05 0.010198 0.042886 0.142376 0.426309 1.140616 2.716399 6.224227
2025-10-12 0.008444 0.038485 0.135410 0.424907 1.180389 2.896649 6.813021
2025-10-19 0.007262 0.035676 0.132414 0.433607 1.246083 3.141104 7.562109
2025-10-26 0.006294 0.033278 0.130084 0.443771 1.317136 3.405711 8.381015
2025-11-02 0.004952 0.028637 0.119110 0.426545 1.315002 3.502721 8.842363
2025-11-09 0.003769 0.024009 0.106665 0.401928 1.288981 3.540284 9.174045
2025-11-16 0.003051 0.021202 0.099871 0.393540 1.306195 3.683936 9.763479